First wave of unstable weather in Abu Dhabi, Dubai to hit tonight

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After midnight on Thursday, the UAE is expected to see the first main wave of unstable weather affect Abu Dhabi and Dubai, bringing rainfall that could be heavy at times. According to a senior meteorologist at the National Centre of Meteorology, the system will unfold in several phases over the next two days, with periods of rain, strong winds, and possible hail as a major weather system moves through the region.

"The first main wave of unstable weather will begin affecting Abu Dhabi and Dubai after midnight, bringing varying intensities of rainfall that could be heavy at times,” said Dr Ahmed Habib, a senior meteorologist at the NCM.

He noted that the country is currently under a state of atmospheric instability, a condition that allows rain clouds to form, intensify, and produce rainfall at any point during the day or night.

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“When we say unstable weather, it means cloud cells can develop and evolve at any time, starting today and continuing into tomorrow,” he explained.

According to Habib, the system driving the current conditions is caused by an upper level low pressure system interacting with a surface low, alongside very high moisture levels flowing in from the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea.

“This combination provides a strong environment for cloud formation and rainfall, not just over the UAE but across the wider region,” he said, pointing to heavy rain already seen in parts of Saudi Arabia and neighbouring Gulf states.

Scattered rainfall has already been recorded in several areas, particularly in the north and east of the country. “At the time of this interview, we are seeing heavy rain mixed with hail in parts of Ras Al Khaimah and Fujairah,” Habib said. “There are also dense rain clouds over offshore islands and waters opposite Umm Al Quwain and parts of Dubai.”

He explained that these cloud systems are gradually moving eastward, ahead of the main weather wave expected later tonight.

"The main wave associated with this system will begin first in the western regions,” Habib said. “This is expected between around 5pm and 7pm in some outer areas, before expanding further across the country overnight.”

By around midnight, the system is expected to reach Abu Dhabi. “From midnight onwards, Abu Dhabi will be affected by rainfall ranging from light to moderate and at times heavy,” he said. “This phase is likely to continue until early Friday morning.”

During the same period, the weather system is expected to extend towards Dubai and the northern coast. “Dubai will also be affected after midnight, along with Sharjah, Umm Al Quwain, Ajman and Ras Al Khaimah,” Habib said. “All northern coastal areas are expected to see rainfall of varying intensity.”

Thunderstorms are likely in areas experiencing heavier rain. “In the stronger cloud cells, we expect thunder, lightning, and the possibility of hail, especially in areas of intense rainfall,” he added.

Habib also warned of strong and active winds linked to convective cloud formations. “These winds may cause reduced horizontal visibility, particularly in open and exposed areas,” he said. “They can also lift dust and may lead to the movement of unsecured objects or weak structures.”

There is also a risk of water accumulation in low lying areas. “With heavy rainfall, we may see pooling of water and valley runoffs in some locations,” he said.

The main system is expected to gradually exit the country by around midday on Friday. “After about 12pm, we expect a relative clearing across most regions,” Habib said, stressing that timings remain approximate due to the nature of weather systems.

However, conditions will remain unstable into the following day. “Later on Friday, some cloud regeneration is expected, mainly over Ras Al Khaimah, with possible extension into parts of Sharjah and northern areas of Dubai,” he said. “This second phase is not expected to be as intense, but rainfall could still range from light to moderate and occasionally heavy in isolated spots.”

When asked about rainfall amounts, Habib said precise figures are difficult to determine. “At this stage, I cannot give exact quantities, but we do expect significant rainfall in some areas,” he said.

He added that the situation is considered seasonally normal. “This is an unstable weather case typical for this time of year,” he said.

Residents have been advised to follow official weather updates and take precautions, particularly during overnight hours when the strongest impacts are expected.