April pump costs face pressure

Motorists in the UAE are likely to pay more for petrol and diesel in April after the Iran war sent crude prices sharply higher and intensified disruption across the Gulf’s main energy and shipping routes, raising the cost base that feeds into the country’s monthly fuel-price adjustment. April rates were due to be announced on March 31, and local pricing remains tied to global oil benchmarks, which have swung violently through March.

Brent crude surged above $118 a barrel during the most acute phase of the market shock and briefly touched $119 on March 19 after attacks on major Gulf energy assets deepened fears of supply losses. Although prices later pulled back from those peaks, they remained elevated at the weekend, with Brent quoted at about $112.57 a barrel on March 29, still far above pre-war levels and high enough to strengthen expectations of a rise in UAE retail fuel prices for April.

The pressure on prices has been driven by a wider supply crisis rather than a single market jolt. Reuters reported that the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively blockaded since the U. S.-Israeli attacks on Iran began on February 28, disrupting a maritime chokepoint that normally handles about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas trade. Shipping interruptions, attacks on industrial sites and damage to logistics infrastructure across the region have reinforced trader concerns that even cargoes not directly lost to the conflict may become costlier to move and insure.

That matters acutely for the UAE even though it has some insulation through export infrastructure outside Hormuz and strong domestic refining and distribution networks. The country’s fuel market is reset every month by a government committee, and retailers such as ADNOC Distribution and ENOC publish the new rates once approved. Current March pump prices already reflect an earlier rise, with ADNOC listing Super 98 at AED 2.59 a litre, Special 95 at AED 2.48, E-Plus 91 at AED 2.40 and diesel at AED 4.14, while local media and industry watchers have said April prices are set to move higher because of March’s oil spike.

Market analysts say the severity and duration of the disruption will determine how long the squeeze lasts. Barclays estimated that a prolonged closure of Hormuz could remove 13 million to 14 million barrels a day from global supply, a scale of disruption large enough to keep risk premiums embedded in crude prices even if some Gulf producers reroute volumes. Goldman Sachs, while more moderate in its baseline, lifted its 2026 Brent forecast and said prices in March and April were likely to average around $110, with a higher-risk scenario taking Brent to $135 if supply losses persist.

For UAE consumers, the immediate question is not whether the country faces shortages, but how much of the international spike will be reflected at the forecourt. The evidence points to an upward adjustment rather than a dramatic leap unless crude stages another late-month rally. Gulf News said elevated oil prices had reduced the chance of a meaningful fall in April fuel rates, while The National reported that a rise was scheduled as Brent traded above $106 and the conflict disrupted regional supply flows.

Beyond the UAE, governments have already begun adjusting policy in response to the shock. New Delhi cut excise duties on petrol and diesel to cushion consumers from the oil surge, while Egypt raised domestic fuel prices by up to 30 per cent earlier this month as higher import costs put pressure on public finances. Those contrasting responses underline the same reality facing fuel importers and consumers across the region: sustained geopolitical disruption is now filtering rapidly into domestic energy pricing.

Investors are also treating the current spike as more than a passing panic. Reuters reported that Gulf stock markets weakened on March 29 as traders weighed the risk of a broader conflict, while separate Reuters reporting and Bloomberg analysis showed that attacks on refineries, export hubs and transport routes had created the biggest geopolitical shock to energy markets in decades. Even if April UAE fuel increases prove moderate, the bigger shift may be that the Gulf energy system is carrying a higher security premium than it did at the start of the year.