Cuba faces deepening hardship amid oil squeeze

Authorities in Havana have acknowledged acute constraints on diesel and petrol supplies, attributing the shortfall to tougher enforcement of US measures targeting oil shipments from Venezuela and other partners. Washington has intensified scrutiny of tankers and intermediaries accused of helping Cuba secure crude, part of a broader sanctions framework that officials say is aimed at pressuring the government over human rights and democratic reforms. Cuban leaders argue the restrictions amount to economic warfare that is strangling essential imports.

The immediate effect has been felt in power generation. Ageing thermoelectric plants, already prone to breakdowns, rely heavily on imported fuel. When deliveries falter, rolling outages follow. Large swathes of Havana and provincial cities have experienced scheduled cuts lasting several hours, while some districts report unplanned interruptions extending far longer. Hospitals and key infrastructure are prioritised, but households and small businesses bear the brunt.

Grocery stores and state-run ration outlets have also been hit. With foreign currency earnings under strain, imports of wheat, cooking oil and animal feed have been curtailed. Bakeries have reduced production, and poultry and pork supplies remain sporadic. Residents describe spending much of the day searching for basics, often paying higher prices in private markets that operate alongside the state system. Inflation, though difficult to measure precisely in Cuba’s dual-currency environment, has eroded purchasing power following earlier monetary reforms that eliminated the convertible peso.

Tourism, once a vital source of hard currency, has failed to recover to pre-pandemic levels. Visitor arrivals remain well below 2019 figures, reflecting a combination of global travel shifts, infrastructure challenges and US travel restrictions that limit visits by American citizens. Canadian travellers, historically the largest group, have declined markedly. Several Canadian carriers have adjusted capacity or suspended certain routes citing weak demand, while tour operators have scaled back programmes. Industry executives point to electricity disruptions and supply constraints as factors weighing on the island’s appeal, even as Cuban officials insist hotels and resorts are shielded from the worst shortages.

Energy analysts note that Cuba’s reliance on Venezuelan crude has long been a vulnerability. Shipments from Caracas have fluctuated with Venezuela’s own production struggles and sanctions regime. Efforts by Havana to diversify suppliers, including sporadic purchases from Russia and other partners, have not fully bridged the gap. Data from maritime tracking services indicate irregular tanker arrivals over the past year, with some cargoes facing delays amid tighter compliance checks.

The US administration maintains that humanitarian goods, including food and medicine, are exempt from sanctions, and argues that governance failures and economic mismanagement are the principal drivers of Cuba’s crisis. Cuban officials counter that financial restrictions and penalties on shipping and insurance complicate transactions even when goods are nominally exempt, increasing costs and deterring suppliers. Independent economists say both factors are at play, pointing to structural inefficiencies in state enterprises alongside the undeniable impact of restricted access to credit and fuel.

Public frustration has surfaced intermittently in protests over power cuts and shortages. Security forces have responded swiftly, and the government has urged patience while outlining emergency measures such as temporary school closures, remote working for some state employees and fuel rationing for non-essential services. Agricultural producers report difficulty transporting crops to urban markets because of diesel scarcity, exacerbating waste and scarcity simultaneously.

Remittances from Cubans abroad provide a lifeline for many families, yet changes in US regulations and the closure of some money transfer channels have complicated flows. Digital platforms and informal couriers have partly filled the gap, though at higher transaction costs. Economists argue that expanding small private enterprises, which Havana has cautiously authorised in recent years, could ease supply bottlenecks if access to inputs and financing improves.

On the streets of Havana, the human toll is visible. Pensioners queue before dawn in hopes of securing bread or cooking oil. Small restaurant owners say they struggle to keep refrigerators running during outages, losing stock and customers. University students speak of interrupted lectures as campuses adjust timetables around electricity schedules. While the government has promised incremental reforms and new renewable energy projects, including solar installations aimed at reducing dependence on imported fuel, such initiatives require capital and time.