France trade gap widens as imports outpace exports

France’s trade deficit widened to €4.2 billion in December 2025, reversing some of the narrowing seen earlier in the quarter as imports accelerated faster than exports, according to official customs data released this week. The shortfall, up from a revised €3.5 billion in November, broadly matched market expectations and underscored the uneven recovery in external trade as domestic demand picked up while overseas sales faced mixed conditions.

The deterioration was driven primarily by a rise in imports of energy products and consumer goods, reflecting both higher volumes and price effects. Energy imports increased as colder winter temperatures lifted gas demand, while refined petroleum products also contributed following maintenance outages at several domestic facilities. Consumer goods imports rose amid steady household spending toward the end of the year, a trend that has been evident since inflation eased and real incomes stabilised.

Exports edged higher in December but at a slower pace than imports. Shipments of aerospace equipment and luxury goods provided some support, continuing a pattern seen across much of 2025, while agricultural exports softened after a strong autumn. Sales of capital goods were uneven, reflecting weaker investment demand in parts of Europe and lingering caution among trading partners outside the euro area.

On a calendar-adjusted basis, the customs office data showed the monthly gap widening despite an improvement in the services balance, which is not included in the trade figures. Tourism and business services continued to perform strongly, helping to offset some of the pressure from goods trade, though not enough to prevent the overall deficit from expanding.

Economists noted that December’s outcome highlighted structural features of the French economy, including its reliance on imported energy and intermediate goods. Although France benefits from a large nuclear power sector, it remains exposed to swings in global energy markets through gas imports and refined fuels. Energy prices were more volatile toward year-end, contributing to the higher import bill even as prices remained below the peaks seen earlier in the decade.

Over the full year, France’s trade balance showed gradual improvement compared with the sharp deficits recorded in 2022 and 2023, when energy prices surged following geopolitical shocks. The trend through 2025 pointed to stabilisation rather than a decisive turnaround, with monthly figures fluctuating around a narrower range. Analysts cautioned that monthly data can be volatile and should be interpreted in the context of longer-term movements.

The euro’s exchange rate played a modest role in December’s figures. A firmer euro against the dollar reduced the cost of some imports, particularly energy commodities priced in dollars, but also weighed on export competitiveness in non-euro markets. Manufacturers in sectors such as machinery and chemicals reported pricing pressures that limited their ability to expand volumes abroad.

Policy makers have emphasised reindustrialisation and export competitiveness as medium-term priorities, pointing to investment incentives, support for innovation, and efforts to strengthen supply chains within Europe. The government has also highlighted progress in reducing the energy intensity of the economy, though the December data suggested that weather-related demand can still have a material impact on monthly trade outcomes.