How can India qualify for T20 World Cup semi-finals? Possible scenarios explained

India revived their T20 World Cup campaign on Thursday, thrashing Zimbabwe by 72 runs in Chennai to bounce back from their heavy defeat against South Africa in their Super Eights opener.

India posted a mammoth 256-4 and then restricted Zimbabwe to 184-6 ahead of their winner-takes-all decider with West Indies for the last semi-final berth.

Hot favourites to defend their title on home soil, India face the West Indies, who went down to South Africa by nine wickets, in Kolkata on Sunday to decide the second semi-finalist from Group 1.

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With India's win, South Africa made their way through to the semifinals from Group 1, while Zimbabwe were knocked out of the tournament. This means India and the West Indies are the only two teams left in Group 1 fighting for the remaining semifinal spot; one of them will join South Africa in the last-four stage.

Sunday's match between India and the West Indies at the Eden Gardens in Kolkata will decide the other semifinalist from Group 1.

Here's what the T20 World Cup 2026 Super 8 points table looks like currently:

1. South Africa: 4 points, 2 matches, NRR (net run rate) +2.890

2. West Indies: 2 points, 2 matches, NRR +1.791

3. India: 2 points, 2 matches, NRR -0.100

4. Zimbabwe: 0 points, 2 matches, NRR -4.475

Remaining fixtures in Super 8 Group 1

March 1: South Africa vs Zimbabwe (3pm)

March 1: India vs West Indies (7pm)

So, what do India need to do against the West Indies to qualify for the semifinals? Here are the possible scenarios.

Scenario 1: India win

If India defeat the West Indies, they will qualify for the semifinals with four points from three matches in the Super 8 stage.

Scenario 2: India lose

If India lose to West Indies, they will be eliminated from the competition, while the West Indies will secure a spot in the semifinals.

Scenario 3: No-result

If rain washes out Sunday's clash, India will be knocked out of the tournament, while the West Indies will advance to semifinals. Both teams would finish on three points if the match is abandoned, but the West Indies would advance due to their superior net run rate of +1.791.

India, the world's top-ranked T20 team, came into the World Cup on the back of huge totals in bilateral contests. The 2024 champions have the weight of history against them. No team has ever retained the T20 World Cup and no side have ever won the trophy on home soil.