India advances $39bn Rafale expansion plan

New Delhi has approved a proposal worth about $39 billion to expand the country’s fleet of Rafale fighter aircraft, marking one of the largest defence procurement decisions in its history and signalling a further shift towards advanced Western platforms in its combat air strategy.

The clearance by the defence ministry paves the way for negotiations with France’s Dassault Aviation for additional Rafale jets, building on an earlier $8.7 billion contract for 36 aircraft for the Air Force, deliveries of which were completed in 2024. A separate agreement has also been signed for 26 Rafale-M naval variants intended for deployment aboard aircraft carriers, underscoring a broader push to strengthen maritime air power.

New Delhi pushes major Rafale fleet expansion as it seeks to address concerns over squadron strength and ageing aircraft. The Air Force’s sanctioned strength stands at 42 squadrons, yet operational numbers have hovered well below that benchmark for years, raising debate within strategic circles over preparedness along contested borders with China and Pakistan.

Officials familiar with the procurement process say the new proposal reflects both operational requirements and long-term modernisation goals. India’s fleet still includes a significant number of Soviet-era MiG-21s and other legacy platforms, many of which are due for phased retirement. The Rafale, a 4.5-generation multirole fighter equipped with advanced avionics, electronic warfare systems and long-range precision weapons, has been positioned as a key element in bridging capability gaps.

The initial induction of 36 Rafales was widely viewed as a stopgap measure after the earlier Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft tender was scrapped amid cost and contractual disputes. Since their deployment at Ambala and Hasimara air bases, the aircraft have been integrated with India-specific enhancements, including advanced radar and electronic countermeasures. Defence planners argue that expanding the Rafale fleet would provide logistical and training efficiencies compared with diversifying further across multiple foreign platforms.

The naval variant, Rafale-M, has been selected to operate from the INS Vikrant, the country’s first domestically built aircraft carrier, and potentially from INS Vikramaditya. Naval aviation officials have indicated that the twin-engine aircraft meets requirements for carrier-based operations, including ski-jump take-offs and arrested landings, following evaluation trials against competitors such as Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet.

Strategic analysts view the combined air force and naval acquisitions as part of a wider recalibration of procurement policy. Over the past decade, New Delhi has sought to balance self-reliance initiatives with the need for timely capability upgrades. Programmes under the “Atmanirbhar Bharat” framework aim to boost domestic manufacturing, yet complex fighter development remains a long-term endeavour. The Light Combat Aircraft Tejas, produced by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, has entered service and secured additional orders, but it is not seen as a direct substitute for heavier multirole platforms like the Rafale.

Financial implications are significant. A $39 billion outlay would rank among the largest defence capital expenditures, at a time when the government is managing competing demands from infrastructure, welfare and economic stimulus. Officials have indicated that staggered payments and potential technology transfers could form part of negotiations, with an emphasis on local industry participation.

Previous Rafale contracts were accompanied by offset obligations requiring Dassault and its partners to invest in the domestic aerospace ecosystem. Whether similar provisions will apply to the expanded deal remains a subject of scrutiny, particularly as policymakers seek to deepen supply-chain integration and reduce long-term import dependence.

Diplomatically, the move reinforces defence ties with France, which has emerged as a key security partner in the Indo-Pacific. Bilateral cooperation spans joint exercises, maritime surveillance and submarine technology. Paris has consistently supported India’s strategic autonomy, a factor often cited by policymakers as attractive compared with other major arms suppliers.

Political debate is likely to accompany the procurement, as the earlier Rafale deal became a focal point of parliamentary contestation over pricing and process transparency. Government representatives have maintained that all procedures were followed in accordance with defence acquisition rules, and that operational urgency justified the intergovernmental route adopted at the time.

Air power specialists argue that a larger Rafale fleet would enhance interoperability and deterrence. The aircraft’s ability to carry Meteor beyond-visual-range missiles and SCALP cruise missiles has been highlighted as a force multiplier. Integration with indigenous weapons and network-centric warfare systems is also under way, reflecting a hybrid approach that blends imported hardware with domestic innovation.

Beyond immediate operational considerations, the proposal signals continuity in defence planning that spans successive administrations. India remains among the world’s largest arms importers, yet officials have reiterated ambitions to transition towards greater domestic production capacity over the coming decade. Achieving that balance, while sustaining readiness across land, sea and air domains, presents both fiscal and industrial challenges.