Marriott is a credible FIFA World Cup hospitality play in 2026

Matein Khalid

Marriott (MAR) is the world’s preeminent hospitality business with 1.7 million hotel rooms located in 9800 properties in 140 countries. Sadly, its shares were a Cinderella last year, underperforming the S&P 500 index with only a 14% return due to the decline in inbound foreign travel to the US triggered by Trump’s tariff threats, immigration crackdown and restrictive visa rules. Hopefully, Marriott will prove a better investment in 2026 since the US, Canada and Mexico hosts the FIFA World Cup, a planetary sensation every four years for billions of soccer fans.

Since Marriott derives 75-80% of its revenues from hotels located in US and Canada alone, I believe it will be the ultimate beneficiary of the first World Cup to be held in Gringolandia since 1994, as well as celebrations to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the US Declaration of Independence from the British Crown in 1776. So why Marriott and why now?

One, this hotel chain owns 30 hospitality brands, most are global icons in their own right – Marriott, Sheraton, St. Regis, Westin, Ritz Carlton, Le Meridien, Bvlgari, W Hotel, MGM Collection on the Las Vegas Strip, Renaissance Hotels, Courtyard by Marriott airport hotels etc.

Two, Marriott has luxury, premium, business, budget and resort hotels that cater to every kind of traveller and every hotel owner located anywhere in the world. This global hospitality ecosystem is only matched by Hilton and to a much lesser extent, Hyatt, IHG, Accor and Four Seasons.

Three, Marriott boasts a premium valuation of 29X and 18X EV/EBITDA but Hilton is even more expensive at 33X and Hyatt is a nosebleed 46X earnings. Great for the Chicago’s Pritzker clan but I cannot justify this multiple.

Four, Marriott has the ultimate asset light model since 98% of its branded hotels are either owned or franchised by third party entrepreneurs. Its 30 carefully positioned brands and 270 million member loyalty program naturally attracts every wannabe hotel owner in the world who can afford its steep 4-6% management fees and high operating costs.

Five, Marriott’s asset light model where it does not take any hotel construction or development risk but passes it on to the owner, yet uses its global procurement technology talent and financial control to operate the hotel under its brands equates to recurrent annual revenue and high returns on invested capital (ROIC). In other words, a money machine.

Six, Marriott will earn 15-17% EPS this year at a time when US economic growth is accelerating and a record high in US household net worth due to Wall Street has stimulated consumer desire for travel and new experiences. This is the anchor for the 29X valuation, higher than Nvidia or Meta in Silicon Valley.

Seven, Marriott’s 30 brands enable it to gain market share in every segment of the hospitality business. Marriott also has 18% of the global hotel industry’s future supply in its development pipeline, a classic harbinger of future growth.

Eight, Marriott has shown great finesse in its acquisition/partnership track record. The post merger integration of Starwood’s luxury resorts was a beauty as was the decision to partner with MGM for its gaming hubs like Bellagio, MGM Grand, Luxor in Vegas.

As we say in Wall Street, Marriott provides different strokes for different folks and the world’s biggest loyalty program, the tissue that connects 30 iconic, global hospitality brands. This is a class act as it strives to get 100% of the travel as well as hotel development wallet from both guests and entrepreneurs without taking any risk on land prices, financing or construction process.

I would ideally love to buy Marriott at 270, which may be possible if Trump ignites another Greenland style geopolitical crisis or trade war. This may not be possible other than via extensive use of Marriott’s Chicago listed equity options to lock in my preferred price/value range.

Nine, I expect the FIFA World Cup will help raise Marriott’s occupancy rate and average daily room rate (ADR). This means a certain rise in RevPar, the primary metric for hotel valuations and growth curves. Net-net, MAR is a no-brainer buy for me at 270 and a Pavlovian sell at 350. After all, all good things come to an end as Axl Rose so rightly observed. “Nothing lasts forever. We both know hearts can change. It’s hard to hold a candle in the cold November Rain”. The FIFA World Cup will end but Tariff Man will go on-and-on for a third/fourth term as he reshapes world history.

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