OPEC keeps demand outlook unchanged

OPEC reported a modest rise in output for November while keeping its view on global oil demand steady, signalling cautious confidence in the market’s ability to absorb additional barrels in the year ahead. The monthly update showed OPEC+ production at just over 43 million barrels per day, a slight increase driven by incremental adjustments across several member states. The move highlights the group’s effort to balance supply discipline with pressure from some producers to restore capacity.

Despite the higher output, OPEC maintained its demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The organisation expects consumption of OPEC+ crude to remain broadly aligned with current production levels, suggesting only a limited surplus if output holds steady. This relatively firm outlook contrasts with independent projections pointing to a potential oversupply next year, fuelled by rising non-OPEC production and slower global growth. OPEC continues to emphasise resilient demand fundamentals, supported by a stable macroeconomic backdrop and gradual recovery across transport and petrochemical sectors.

The divergence between OPEC’s assessment and external forecasts underscores differing interpretations of market signals. While some analysts warn that expanding inventories and strong US supply could weigh on prices, OPEC argues that consumption trends remain robust enough to sustain its measured output strategy. The group has signalled it will avoid aggressive production hikes early in 2026, wary of reinforcing downward price pressure at a time when global economic conditions remain uneven.

The November increase also reflects ongoing coordination within the OPEC+ alliance, including key partners such as Russia, as members attempt to calibrate supply without undermining investment or credibility. For markets, the report offers a reminder that the supply-demand balance remains finely poised. Traders will closely monitor whether OPEC’s steady outlook holds against shifting economic data and the pace of non-OPEC output growth in the months ahead.

The post OPEC keeps demand outlook unchanged appeared first on PAN Finance.