Rupee Recovers to 91.80: Will US Roll Back Russian Oil Tariffs in 2026?

It’s Tuesday, January 27, 2026, and the Rupee is finally catching its breath. After flirting with the “92” danger zone on Friday, it’s clawed back 10 paise to trade at 91.80 against the dollar.

The thing is, we’ve just come off a long Republic Day weekend. While we were celebrating, the global markets were shifting. Or nothing.

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The Rupee’s “Republic” Recovery: Field Notes

It’s an ongoing situation where the greenback is losing its grip, but only just. Here’s the ground reality from the forex desks:

• The Bessent Factor: Here’s the kicker—U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dropped a massive hint at Davos over the weekend. He basically said there’s a “path” to removing that 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil. He claims Indian purchases of Russian crude have “collapsed” under the pressure. Let’s be real—if those tariffs get rolled back, the Rupee could have a massive relief rally. Those too.

• The “Four-Month Low”: The dollar index (DXY) hit a four-month low of 96.80 today. Traders are nervous about the upcoming FOMC meeting, and they’re pulling money out of the dollar to cover their bases. It’s messy. But and here’s the kicker—as the dollar weakens, the Rupee gets some breathing room.

• The Forex Shield: The RBI is sitting on a war chest of 701.36 billion. That’s an increase of over $14 billion in just one week. The thing is, they’ve been selling dollars and shifting reserves into gold (now worth $117 billion) to keep the Rupee from crashing past 92. Or nothing.

• Equity Hemorrhage: It’s not all good news. Foreign investors dumped another ₹4,113 crore into the market on Friday. The Sensex is down over 400 points this morning. People are selling Indian stocks and taking their dollars home. The thing is, until the capital outflows stop, the Rupee is always going to be looking over its shoulder.

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Markets At A Glance (Jan 27, 2026)

And Here’s the Kicker…

President Trump’s 50% total tariff on Indian goods (including the Russian oil penalty) is still the elephant in the room. The thing is, Bessent’s “path to removal” is the first sign of a thaw in bilateral ties. One side comment—if that trade deal actually happens, we could see the Rupee head back toward 89 or 90. Until then, it’s just surviving. Those too. Or nothing.

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End…

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