Saudi Aramco profit set to rise but soften quarter-on-quarter

Saudi Arabian Oil Co, known globally as Saudi Aramco, is forecast to post a net profit of 91.9 billion Saudi riyals in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a 5.9 per cent increase compared to the same period a year earlier but a 5.5 per cent decline from the third quarter, according to earnings estimates by AlJazira Capital. The projections reflect the complex interplay between oil market dynamics, production strategies and refining margins at the world’s largest listed oil company.

Analysts at AlJazira Capital attribute the sequential easing in profit to a weakening in global crude prices through the quarter, which offset the positive effects of higher output levels. Brent crude prices trended lower, registering a 7.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter drop, as supply and demand signals pointed to uneven energy market conditions. Saudi Aramco has responded by ramping up crude production by about 400,000 barrels per day, or roughly 4.3 per cent compared with the previous quarter, helping to cushion the impact on its bottom line.

Revenue is expected to fall to SAR 406.9 billion for the quarter, down 5.1 per cent on the year and 2.7 per cent from the third quarter. Upstream revenue, derived chiefly from crude oil and gas sales, is poised to bear the brunt of lower realised commodity prices, while downstream earnings from refining operations are anticipated to register modest growth on improved margins. Chemical unit margins, however, remain under pressure, illustrating the varied fortunes across Aramco’s integrated business lines.

Looking ahead to full-year 2026, AlJazira Capital’s forecasts suggest a marginal rise in overall revenue to about SAR 1.7 trillion and a broadly stable net income level of around SAR 371 billion. The broker’s 2026 earnings view is built on an assumed average oil price of $62.4 per barrel, roughly 8 per cent lower on a year-on-year basis from 2025 levels. This pricing scenario underscores persistent volatility in crude benchmarks amid shifting global supply and geopolitical factors. AlJazira has maintained an “Overweight” rating on Aramco’s shares, with a target price of SAR 29.6 per share, signalling confidence that the company’s long-term fundamentals can withstand short-term headwinds.

Market participants have been watching oil price developments closely. Output decisions by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, which includes Saudi Arabia, are poised to shape price trajectories in 2026. A meeting slated for early March is expected to consider resuming oil output increases from April, a move aimed at capturing summer demand while managing inventories. Brent crude has remained relatively firm, trading near multi-month highs, but producers must balance production growth against the risk of oversupply as global demand patterns remain uneven.

The divergence between year-over-year profit growth and weaker sequential performance illustrates broader market pressures. Aramco’s net income has historically ranked among the largest corporate profits globally, often eclipsing major technology and industrial firms in annual earnings. Yet even for this energy giant, external forces such as price fluctuations, refining margins and global demand shifts bear heavily on quarterly results.

Industry analysts point to the importance of refining and chemicals businesses in Aramco’s earnings mix as oil markets face structural change. While upstream profits remain closely tied to crude valuations, downstream operations can offer some insulation against price cycles if margins improve through operational enhancements or favourable demand in finished products. The interplay between these segments will be central to investor expectations as Aramco prepares to report its full 2025 results on 10 March.