Sensex and Nifty Eye Relief Rally: Markets Swing as Trump Delays Iran Strike

Now the Indian stock market is bracing for a dramatic turnaround. On Monday, March 23, 2026, the Sensex and Nifty 50 slumped over 2% as the Rupee crashed to a historic low of 93.97 against the US Dollar. Therefore, investors were left reeling from a $10 billion foreign outflow this month alone. However, a late-evening announcement by US President Donald Trump has sparked a massive 4% surge in the GIFT Nifty. Currently, global markets are reacting to a five-day “ceasefire” in planned military strikes.

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At a Glance:

• Monday’s Crash: Nifty fell to 22,512 and Sensex to 72,696.

• Currency Crisis: The Rupee hit a new record low of 93.97.

• The “Trump Bump”: GIFT Nifty jumped 865 points (3.8%) after strike delays.

• Oil Volatility: Brent crude plunged 14% to $96 following the Truth Social post.

• War Impact: Both major Indian indices are down 10.6% since the conflict began in February.

In This Article:

• The Rupee’s Record Low: Why 93.97 Matters

• GIFT Nifty’s 4% Surge: A Tuesday Relief Rally?

• Global Market Reaction: From Tokyo to Wall Street

• Oil and Inflation: The Strait of Hormuz Factor

• Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

The Rupee’s Record Low: Why 93.97 Matters

Now the Indian currency is under unprecedented pressure. On Monday morning, the Rupee slipped to 93.97 per dollar, driven by a combination of high oil prices and massive foreign fund exits. Therefore, the cost of imports—especially crude oil—is threatening to spike domestic inflation.

First, foreign investors pulled nearly $10 billion out of Indian equities in March. Next, the volatility index (VIX) jumped to 27.17, its highest level since the 2024 elections. Thus, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is facing a difficult balancing act to defend the currency while maintaining growth.

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GIFT Nifty’s 4% Surge: A Tuesday Relief Rally?

Now there is a sudden glimmer of hope for domestic traders. Late on Monday evening, the GIFT Nifty index surged by nearly 4%. Therefore, Indian markets are expected to open with a massive “gap-up” on Tuesday morning.

So what triggered the move? First, President Trump announced on Truth Social that military strikes on Iranian power plants would be postponed for five days. Next, he indicated that “talks with Tehran” are underway, despite Iran’s public denials. Thus, the index jumped over 865 points to hit 23,321.50. Currently, this signals that the worst of the Monday sell-off might be corrected within the first hour of Tuesday’s trade.

Global Market Reaction: From Tokyo to Wall Street

Now the “Trump delay” has sent shockwaves through international exchanges. Because Asian markets like the Nikkei and Hang Seng closed before the announcement, they finished Monday with deep losses of 3.5%.

However, Western markets flipped immediately. First, the S&P 500 leapt 1.9% toward its best day of the year. Next, Germany’s DAX returned 2.2% as energy fears subsided. Thus, the global sentiment has shifted from “panic selling” to “cautious optimism.” Meanwhile, investors are watching whether this five-day window will lead to a permanent de-escalation or just a temporary pause in the West Asia conflict.

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Oil and Inflation: The Strait of Hormuz Factor

Now the most significant impact was felt in the energy pits. Following the postponement of the strike, Brent oil futures dropped 14% to settle around $96 a barrel. Therefore, the immediate threat of a $150+ oil price has been pushed back.

First, European natural gas prices also plunged, easing the pressure on global manufacturing. Next, lower oil prices are expected to provide some relief to the Indian Rupee. Thus, the growth outlook for the final quarter of 2026 has “brightened” slightly. However, analysts warn that as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint, the underlying inflation risks remain elevated.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Why did the Indian Rupee fall to 93.97? The fall was driven by high crude oil prices, a strong US Dollar, and foreign investors withdrawing over $10 billion from Indian markets this month.

What is the GIFT Nifty and why did it rise? GIFT Nifty is an early indicator of the Indian market. It rose 3.8% after Donald Trump announced a five-day delay in military strikes against Iran.

How much have Sensex and Nifty fallen since the war began? Both indices have lost approximately 10.6% since the conflict started at the end of February 2026.

What is the current price of Brent crude oil? Following the recent de-escalation news, Brent crude dropped 14% to approximately $96 per barrel.

Will the Indian stock market recover on Tuesday? The 865-point jump in GIFT Nifty suggests a strong relief rally is likely when the Indian markets open on Tuesday morning.

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End…..

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