Stocks dip and oil climbs as Trump turns up the heat on Iran

Global markets retreated into a “risk-off” defensive posture on Friday, February 20, 2026, as a convergence of geopolitical threats and liquidity scares rattled investors. In Singapore and across Asian hubs, stocks slipped while the US dollar notched its largest weekly gain in four months.

The dual pressure stems from President Donald Trump’s intensified rhetoric toward Tehran and a sudden rout in the private equity sector. With investors shying away from risk, the focus has shifted to safe-haven assets and the impending “earnings blockbuster” from Nvidia scheduled for next week.

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Trump’s Two-Week Deadline: Oil Markets on Edge

Oil prices hit their highest levels since mid-2025 after President Trump issued a stark ultimatum to Iran. Trump has set a 10 to 15-day deadline for the Islamic Republic to finalize a deal over its nuclear program. Failure to comply, he warned, would result in “really bad things”—a comment interpreted by markets as a signal for imminent military action or a total naval blockade.

Brent crude futures breached the 72 mark, reflecting fears that the Strait of Hormuz could face prolonged disruptions.

The Blue Owl Contagion: Private Equity Liquidity Crisis

While geopolitics fueled the oil rally, a internal “liquidity event” hit Wall Street. Blue Owl Capital shares tumbled 6% after the firm permanently stopped quarterly redemptions from one of its major funds. This move sparked a wider sell-off in the private equity space, with giants Blackstone and Apollo Global Management both falling more than 5%.

The episode has exposed concerns over “excess leverage” used to finance the recent AI software boom. Analysts are drawing parallels to the 2008 financial crisis, noting that off-balance sheet financing for AI infrastructure may be creating a localized liquidity trap.

Nvidia’s $30 Billion Shift: Recalibrating AI Bets

In a major corporate development, Nvidia is reportedly close to finalizing a $30 billion direct investment into OpenAI. This move replaces a previous, more ambitious $100 billion long-term commitment.

The downscaling of the investment is seen as a strategic recalibration. As returns on AI software investments face increased scrutiny, Nvidia is focusing on a “durable” partnership that ensures its chips remain the backbone of ChatGPT while limiting its exposure to OpenAI’s burn rate. This news has kept chipmakers relatively insulated from the broader tech sell-off seen in the software sector.

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Reality Check

President Trump’s 15-day deadline is designed to force a diplomatic breakthrough. Still, the Iranian government has historically used such windows to ramp up its “NOTAM” rocket activity rather than capitulate. Therefore, the $72 Brent price includes a massive “uncertainty premium” that could vanish if the deadline passes without incident. In fact, if Trump’s “really bad things” turn out to be just more economic sanctions, oil could see a sharp correction by early March.

The Loopholes

Blue Owl Capital claims its redemption halt is a “liquidity issue, not a solvency one.” In fact, when a fund stops redemptions, it often signals that the underlying assets—likely illiquid AI startups—cannot be sold quickly enough to meet investor demand. Therefore, the “liquidity loophole” is actually a sign that the AI private equity bubble may be losing air. Still, the Nvidia-OpenAI deal creates a “valuation floor” for the sector, preventing a total collapse of confidence in AI infrastructure.

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What This Means for You

If you are an investor, “staying out of trouble” is the theme for this weekend. First, realize that Nvidia’s earnings next week will be the ultimate pivot point for the market; if they beat expectations, the PE rout could be forgotten. Then, check your exposure to private equity funds; the Blue Owl event might trigger similar “gates” at other mid-sized firms.

Finally, understand that the US Dollar’s 1.6% rise against the Yen makes imports from Japan cheaper but complicates things for the Bank of Japan. You should expect continued volatility in the AUD/USD pair as it struggles against the surging greenback. Before Monday’s open, follow the “vessel tracking” data for the Strait of Hormuz to see if Iran makes a retaliatory move against the Trump deadline.

What’s Next

The 10-day countdown for the Trump-Iran ultimatum officially begins this weekend. Then, Nvidia will release its highly anticipated quarterly results on Wednesday, February 25. Finally, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will provide a fresh update on crude inventories, which could further inflame or cool the $72 oil rally.

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End….

The post Stocks dip and oil climbs as Trump turns up the heat on Iran first appeared on Business League.