Venezuelans brace for an uncertain political crossroads

Caracas has slipped into an uneasy calm as Venezuelans await signals about the direction their country will take, with political negotiations stalled, economic pressures unresolved and social tensions simmering beneath the surface. “There is a strange lull,” said Benigno Alarcón Deza, a long-time resident of the capital, describing a sense of collective anticipation that has settled over daily life. “People are waiting, watching, unsure of what comes next.”

The mood reflects a broader national uncertainty shaped by unresolved disputes over governance, international engagement and economic recovery. Streets that once echoed with demonstrations now carry a quieter tension, as households weigh their options in a country where political decisions directly affect access to food, fuel and work. Many Venezuelans say the pause feels temporary, a holding pattern before a decisive shift.

At the centre of this uncertainty lies the balance between the administration in Caracas and opposition groups that continue to push for electoral guarantees and institutional reforms. Dialogue efforts have moved in fits and starts, often disrupted by disagreements over conditions, timelines and international recognition. While some citizens hope negotiations could stabilise the political landscape, others remain sceptical after years of aborted talks and unmet promises.

Economic fragility continues to shape everyday anxieties. Inflation has slowed from its peak but remains a persistent concern, eroding purchasing power and keeping wages under strain. Dollarisation in practice, though unofficial, has brought a measure of price stability in urban centres, yet it has also deepened inequality between those with access to foreign currency and those reliant on bolívar incomes. Outside major cities, shortages and service disruptions remain part of daily life.

The oil sector, long the backbone of the economy, stands at a crossroads of its own. Limited easing of international restrictions has allowed for modest increases in output and exports, offering the prospect of fiscal breathing room. However, years of underinvestment, technical decay and skilled labour flight have left the industry struggling to scale up quickly. Analysts note that without sustained policy clarity and reintegration into global markets, any gains risk being fragile.

Migration continues to weigh heavily on the national psyche. Millions have left the country over the past decade, reshaping families and communities. Remittances have become a lifeline for many households, cushioning the impact of low domestic incomes. Yet the social cost of separation is evident, with schools, hospitals and small businesses affected by the absence of working-age adults.

Security conditions have improved in parts of Caracas and other urban areas, according to residents and local observers, but concerns persist about crime, corruption and uneven law enforcement. For many Venezuelans, stability is measured less by political rhetoric and more by whether public transport runs reliably, electricity stays on and hospitals have basic supplies.

International dynamics add another layer of uncertainty. Relations with neighbouring countries and major global powers influence access to trade, financing and humanitarian support. Shifts in diplomatic engagement have raised hopes among some sectors for gradual normalisation, while others warn that external pressure remains a key lever in pushing for political change. Ordinary citizens, however, often feel caught between forces beyond their control.

Within Caracas, the sense of waiting described by Alarcón Deza is visible in subtle ways. Cafés are busy with conversation but cautious in tone. Business owners delay major investments. Families postpone decisions about travel or relocation. The city moves, but without momentum. “It’s not fear exactly,” he said. “It’s more like holding your breath.”

Younger Venezuelans express a mix of pragmatism and resignation. Many focus on short-term opportunities in the gig economy or informal trade, adapting to uncertainty as a constant rather than an exception. Older generations, shaped by memories of a more predictable past, tend to view the current pause with deeper unease, worried that time lost is difficult to recover.