2025 Was Donald Trump’s Year But 2026 Is Going To Be The Year With Xi Jinping’s Domination

By Nitya Chakraborty

2025 was the year of the maverick U.S. President Donald Trump. The developments during the year beginning January 20 evolved around Trump. He was the key decision-maker, irrespective of what other countries leaders felt. He cared little for the United Nations, WTO, WHO and all other multilateral bodies. He openly said ‘I am the law”.

The New Year 2026 began with Trump’s invasion of Venezuela on January 3 and kidnapping of President Nicholas Maduro. This was followed by his open declaration to take over Greenland irrespective of what the European nations say. Trump has thrown a challenge to EU and European members of NATO. So far, his unvanquished spree is continuing in the global diplomacy. But can the U.S. President continue his free run in 2026 also till December. The answer is emphatic No. 2026 is not going to be the year of Trump again. It will be the year of China led by its President Xi Jinping.

Trump has been loud all through, he exaggerates his every action and projects it as a victory of the USA as a part of his MAGA programme. But in effect, he has undercut the support base of USA around the world including the G-7. In 2025, President Xi Jinping silently carried out his programme to spread China’s influence in Asia, Africa and Latin America taking advantage of their disgruntlement with Trump’s unilateral tariff hikes and his coercive methods in concluding trade deals. China is getting dividends from Trump’s actions. This process intensifies in the coming months of 2026 ending with major political crisis for Trump after the November midterm elections.

Three factors have given a big lead to China vis a vis USA in the first month of 2026 itself. On Friday China concluded a trade deal with Canada in the presence of Prime Minister Mark Carney in Beijing which the commentators of the western media including New York Times have termed historic. At a time, when Trump is yet to sign a trade deal with its leading trade partner Canada, China clinched this deal setting the process of strategic relationship with a G7 country, the neighbouring country of USA which so long distanced itself from cordial trade relations with China.

Carney’s visit is the first time in nearly a decade that a Canadian prime minister has been welcomed in Beijing. It comes after years of a deep freeze in the relationship between Ottawa and Beijing that Carney wants to thaw, in order to reduce his country’s precarious reliance on the United States. Carney told the newsmen that both China and Canada are working for a New World Order implying that the old order has collapsed due to Trump’s actions and New Order has to be established. China is talking of this New World Order as against the Order imposed by Trump. So, Canada, the G-7 member and the neighbor of USA is now a part of the New Order of China.

Just as Carney was heading to Beijing, the US president, Donald Trump, was telling reporters the US doesn’t need Canadian products. The comment highlights the pressure that Carney is under to diversify his country’s exports away from the US. Canada sends about 70% of its exports to USA. But later Trump again commented Let them make the deal. US needs Canadian products, the only thing that it will be on the terms of Trump.

Interestingly, Chinese media is explaining the Canada-China trade agreement as the necessary correction of earlier wrongdoing. China does not want to put it as a sort of victory against the USA. The fact is that President Trump is scheduled to Visit China in April this year to finalise the trade deal. Both Trump and Xi have big stakes in this deal. They cannot do anything to delay or subvert the process. So China is putting its trade deal with Canada as a significant trade deal and this should be the norm for bilateral relations not the methods applied by Donald Trump.

While, the Canada-China trade deal has given a big boost to the global diplomacy of President Xi Jinping, the latest publication of trade data showing US$ 1.2 trillion trade surplus at the end of 2025 by China has made it clear that the US sanctions and tariff rate hikes have not impacted significantly China’s global exports. China has the capacity to sustain its economy even with more sanctions and tariff hikes by USA. The latest trade surplus of China is now under discussion among Trump advisers and commerce ministry officials. The assessment will be taken into account while adopting the strategy in April summit on trade deal.

The third significant factor is the latest study by the Times Higher Education according to which Chinese Universities have surged in global rankings surpassing the U.S. universities in 2025. Out of top ten, seven are Chinese Universities. The speed with which the Chinese Universities have been doing high tech research work has alarmed the US policy makers. In the area of AI, the Chinese institutions and companies are investing less while getting more results compared to the high level of investment by the U.S. in AI providing not enough dividends. This has led to a fear in US markets that if the huge investments in AI do not produce results by 2027, there will be a backlash in the stock market like the dotcom bust by the end of the last century.

All these three factors have weakened US bargaining power under Donald Trump to take on the Chinese President Xi Jinping. If in November this year, the Republicans lose heavily giving control of Congress and senate to the Democrats, Trump will be politically hamstrung for the next two years rill November 2028. President Xi will have ample scope to score more advances during this period before Trump’s tenure expires. To quote the renowned writer Amitav Ghosh “Against becomes most dangerous when it is about to fall. This is what we are seeing in the case of Trump”. We have to wait for November this year for this. (IPA Service)

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